Just so everyone understands, I'm responding to Bob O'H's comments on my answers to Nullifidian's five questions. Thought I'd do it as a blog post rather than another comment so it didn't get lost in the shuffle.
I said: I know there are probably many more predictions [from ID theory] than this, but here
are a few that I find compelling: 1) that we we'll find specified complexity in
biology,
Bob said: Um, can you point to a single example where anyone has actually shown specified
complexity in biology? Dembski claims that it can be quantified using CSI
(Complex Specified Information), but the only calculations of CSI I've seen
reply on a combination of ignoring the evolutionary process and Texas
sharp-shooting. If that's how specified complexity is being defined, then
evolutionary biology will also predict you can find it. Finding it is
equivalent to showing that natural selection works.
My response: Unfortunately, I’m not smart enough to fully understand the mathematics
of Dembski’s work. However, I do know enough to understand the argument he is
making. ID predicts that we will find complexity in nature that can’t be fully
explained by chance and necessity. I think it’s a reasonable prediction. It’s
falsifiable, and it’s something we can go out and test. And remember: The
question was about what predictions ID makes, not whether evidence has been
found to confirm those predictions. In this sense, ID is no different than
string theory. Lots of predictions, but not a lot of evidence. But that doesn’t
mean we throw out the theory.
I said: 2) rapid appearance of complexity in the fossil record,
Bob said: Again, how does that really differ from evolution? The fossil record is far
from perfect, so the gaps in a sequence can easily be long enough to
"hide" large changes. What is quick at a paleontological scale is
awfully slow at the ecological scale.
My response: This is an interesting response, Bob. On the one hand, I hear Darwinists
talk all the time about how the fossil record offers conclusive evidence for
gradualistic evolution. But when ID folks question such claims, the fallback
argument is always that the fossil record is far from perfect and that any
apparent gaps are an artefact of the fossilization process as opposed to real
discontinuities in the speciation process. Which is it? At any rate, ID
predicts rapid appearance of complexity in the fossil record, and that is
exactly what we find with the Cambrian explosion. You can say the evidence is
still out there for the gradualist account, but that kind of puts you in
X-files territory. Rather than talk about the evidence still to come in (kind
of like writing a blank check to yourself), how about discussing the evidence
that is rapidly accumulating upon the table.
I said: 3) re-usage of similar parts in different organisms,
Bob said: Again, this is consonant with evolutionary theory. Where it might diverge is if
the "similar parts" could not have a common ancestor.
My response: If you think about it, this prediction fits with both ID theory and
Neo-Darwinism. If every organism evolved from a common ancestor (or ancestors,
as many people now believe), one would expect re-usage of similar body parts.
However, if every organism was designed by the same designer, it’s likely you’d
see the same thing.
I said: 4) informational structures beyond the inherent abilities of
blind natural forces and random chance will be found,
Bob said: This just says "ID will be found to be true". Other than that, it's
so vague as to be meaningless.
My response: Not exactly, Bob. What it’s saying is, ID predicts that chance and
necessity are insufficient to produce the diversity and complexity of life on
this planet. It predicts that another force (or forces) will be found to
explain that complexity and diversity. And that force could just be a designing
intelligence that frontloaded information into the system. Once again, even
People like Francis Crick and Richard Dawkins are open to this possibility.
Just as long as whoever frontloaded the information is not what we would define
as God. This also brings up the most important issue in this debate, from my
point of view. Information runs the show in biology. To get new organs, new
species, to get life, you need information. So where does that information come
from? Did it arise through blind natural forces like chance and necessity, or
did someone pre-program it into the biosphere? Those are two legitimate lines
of inquiry. Only right now, for the most part, the second one is being ruled
inadmissible out of court.
I said: 5) vestigial organs will be found to have some function for an organism,
Bob said: Once more, this doesn't differ from evolutionary biology. I'm sure PZ has
covered this several times.
My response: I love all these references to PZ. If PZ has covered it, I guess that’s
the end of the discussion. I don’t buy that for a second. This prediction is
completely at odds with evolutionary biology. Evolutionary biology predicts
that animals will be full of vestigial organs, because all species are in
transition. Evolutionary biology claims that these organs will be shown to be
useless, not useful.
I said: 6) much of the so-called "junk DNA" will be found to have
some purpose.
Bob said: Guess what? For some definition of "much", we're in agreement. We've
known for a long time that some non-coding DNA has a function. We also know
that some is ust crap - pseudo-genes, remains of transposons, transposons etc.
There are good reasons why these are in the genome (selfish DNA, evolvability
etc.).
My response: Once again, I completely disagree with you here, Bob. Neo-Darwinism predicts
an accumulation of junk DNA left over from the evolution process. Evolutionary
biologists were surprised to learn that much of this supposedly junk DNA
actually has a function.
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